Their situation may not mean what yours would
Your own experience is a starting point to check, not a substitute for asking
Your sister turns down a promotion at work. You would have accepted a similar opportunity, so you assume she’s afraid of responsibility. You prepare an encouraging speech without finding out why she made her decision. She may be thinking about working hours, the role itself, or what she wants to do next. The same offer doesn’t have to mean the same thing to both of you.
In a series of experiments, Eyal, Steffel, and Epley in 2018 found no consistent improvement in the accuracy of people’s estimates when they were told to imagine another person’s perspective. In the final experiment, accuracy improved when a conversation provided new information. The research looked at specific estimation tasks; it doesn’t show that imagination is useless or that every question automatically gets a truthful, complete answer.
The practical takeaway is more modest: use your assumption to prepare a question, not to replace the answer. “What mattered most to you when you made the decision?” asks about her criteria. “Why didn’t you believe in yourself?” already imposes an explanation. After she answers, you could check: “So the deciding factor was being available in the evenings, not the responsibility itself?”
Understanding doesn’t mean you have to choose the same thing. You can have different priorities and still understand her reasons accurately. If she doesn’t want to say more, part of the situation remains unknown. Don’t automatically fill that gap with your own story. You can respect her decision without knowing all the private circumstances behind it.